Abstract:
Abstract. A power generating system in a steam power plant is a complex one. This system involves a
large number of variables containing information concerning the operation conditions. It can also be seen
as an important asset in both power generation and energy portfolios. At the Asam-asam power plant of
South Kalimantan, the complexity of the system has led to difficulties in explaining the apparently steady
decrease in the output power. The amount of data collected is simply too big and the dimension too high
for analysis purposes based on conventional thermodynamics. This study was performed to tackle the
problem using statistical modelling. This approach can accommodate empirical behaviors of the variables
and the probabilistic nature of the system. Information obtained from this modelling can be valuable for
various purposes. The method consists of literature review, model development, data collection and
analysis, and model fitting. Generalized additive models were chosen. Data were available from the
company as observed from more than 140 variables. The resulting model identifies variables significantly
related to the output power and locate subsystems whose fluctuating behaviors are usually ignored in a
conventional thermodynamic analysis. A direction for future research is recommended.
