Abstract:
A management unit-based land cover change analysis was examined in
Kahayan Tengah Forest Management Unit (FMU) to understand past,
present, and future land cover to assist forest management planning in
Kahayan Tengah FMU. This study aims to model land cover change in
2011 and 2016, predict 2021, and simulate land cover in 2026 in Kahayan
Tengah FMU. Modeling land cover prediction and simulation using
MOLUSCE from the QGIS plugin. The results revealed that agricultural
land experienced significant increase in total area during 2011–2016.
Modeling potential land cover transitions in 2011 and 2016 with the
Artificial Neural Network method showed a Kappa coefficient of 0.701 in
the good category, and simulation of land cover in 2021 with the Cellular
Automata method showed a Kappa coefficient of 0.672 in the good
category. By 2026, the agricultural land will continue to increase while
forest land tends to remain stable in its total area. This study managed to
predict land cover in 2021 and simulated 2026 with good accuracy. Thus,
this data and information can support forest management planning in
Kahayan Tengah FMU.
