Analisis Kestabilan dan Sensitivitas pada Model Matematika SEIRD dari Penyebaran Covid-19: Studi Kasus di Kalimantan Selatan

Abstract

The cases of Covid-19 that occurred in South Kalimantan were classified into 5 groups, namely suspected, treated, recovered, deaths, and healthy population who were susceptible for being infected with Covid-19. The dynamics of changes in the number of cases in each group can be studied mathematically through epidemiological mathematical modeling. In this study, the SEIRD Model (Susceptible, Exposed, Infected, Recovered, and Deaths) was formed to describe the dynamics of changing the number of Covid-19 cases in South Kalimantan. In this model, stability analysis and formulation of indicators for the controllability of the spread of Covid-19 are given, known as the Basic Reproduction Number. Furthermore, a sensitivity analysis of the parameters contained in the Basic Reproduction Number is given to determine the priority efforts that can be made to suppress the spread of Covid-19 in South Kalimantan.