Model Matematika SEIRD (Susceptible, Exposed, Infected, Recovered, Dan Death) Untuk Penyebaran Penyakit ISPA

Abstract

In the last few decades, the Upper Respiratory Tract Infection has become one of the three leading causes of death and disability in the world, both in developing countries and in developed countries. In Indonesia, the trend of this disease continues to increase throughout 2016 - 2019 and in children it has caused 1 - 4 children under five to die every hour. In this study, the spread of this disease was modeled mathematically by using the SEIRD Model (Susceptible, Exposed, Infected, Recovered, and Death). Then, the equilibrium points of the model are determined, stability analysis is performed, and the model solution is determined using the Runge Kutta Method. Keywords: SEIRD Model, Acute respiratory infection (ISPA), Equilibrium, Stability Analysis & Runga Kutta Method.