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Abstract
One of population problems in Banjarmasin is highly growth population rate. Based
on Badan Pusat Statistik data, mean of sum of the population of Banjarmasin is more than
other city and regencies in South Kalimantan. Even though Banjarmasin has incapacious
area. The government explained that sum of the population of Banjarmasin would be
increasing until 800.000 people in 2025. Consequently, Badan Perencanaan Pembangunan
Daerah (Bappeda) Banjarmasin would be seriously make growth population control program.
The growth population problem in this city, with growth population rate limited can be
explained using mathematic model, is Logistic Growth Model. This model can be using to
conceive the involved processes in growth population problem with carrying capacity area.
Beside that, it would support in decision making for the problem. The aims of this paper to
estimate growth rate and carrying capacity parameter of Logistic Model in population of
Banjarmasin. Beside that, it can be predicted sum of the population of Banjarmasin for the
future. The research processes are literature study, with applied using sum of the population
of Banjarmasin from 2010 until 2016. Estimation of growth population rate and carrying
capacity in Banjarmasin are using LSQ-Nonlin Method. The purpose of this method is
finding growth population rate and carrying capacity with normalized minimum distance, that
known as “error” or “residual” between Logistic Growth Model and its estimator. The results
are 0,0750 as estimator of growth population rate parameter with carrying capacity 775.920
people and predicted error is 1,1974 x 10-4
. The conclusion is seen that Logistic Growth
Population Model can be good model to predicted sum of the population of Banjarmasin for
the future.
Keywords: estimation, sum of population, logistic model, Banjarmasin, LSQ-Nonlin |
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